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Report #138
July 27, 2010

The Aftermath of the Bombings in Uganda

I presume that most of you have heard of the twin suicide bombings in Kampala, Uganda, during the world cup final on July 11 that killed 76 people. The al-Shabab, the rebel group that controls most of southern Somalia over to the Kenyan border, claimed responsibility and most have accepted that al-Shabab, perhaps with support from Al Qaida, carried out the attacks.

As a result of these bombings in Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni is promoting a strong military retaliation. This is very similar to the reaction of President George Bush to the 9/11 attack. Uganda has the largest contingent of African Union peacekeeping troops in Somalia and this was the reason that al-Shabab attacked Uganda. Museveni has vowed retaliation by increasing the number of Ugandan troops in Somalia and changing the role of his peacekeepers from a defensive one of just guarding important places such as the airport and parliament to an offensive one of attacking al-Shabab.

In 1993, under President Bill Clinton, the US military tried this and as soon as 17 soldiers were killed when their helicopter was shot down, he withdrew the US troops. In 2006 with strong support from America, Ethiopia invaded Somalia and displaced the previous Islamic government. But after a year of mounting losses and little results, Ethiopia – much more prudent than the Americans in Afghanistan – withdrew. The most militant group that they disrupted, al-Shabab, then became the predominate political actor in southern Somalia. The United States in its War on Terror had an amazing loss as its tactics brought an even more militant Islamic faction to power. Al-Shabab definitely has close contacts with the rebels in nearby Yemen and probably now also with foreign fighters for Al-Qaida.

In my opinion this situation is a god-send for President Museveni. As I reported earlier (March 13, Is Uganda Next?), since he militarily conquered Uganda in 1986 Museveni's coalition is falling apart and he has been in grave danger of losing the next election in early 2011. Museveni conquered Uganda by the sword and has never given up his love of the sword. After the landslide in Bududa earlier this year, Museveni was shown carrying his trusty AK-47 as he visited the disaster scene to the approbation of many Ugandan and foreign correspondents. Museveni loves a good fight. Moreover, this situation has the following benefits.

Uganda has a bloated, inefficient army accused of many human rights violations both in Northern Uganda in their fight against the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) and in their peacekeeping mission in Somalia. Museveni vows to increase the number of soldiers in Somalia, thereby giving him a rationale to keep his bloated army. He is asking (again nothing new to Americans) for increased military spending to pay for these troops.

He will then be able to use his war in Somalia as a campaign issue. Any other candidate who opposes this war in Somalia – and I expect there will be many who see through Museveni's aims – will be called traitors and some will be jailed. Those who do not will be intimidated. This all may be enough to ensure his re-election to another five year term.

Museveni used to be the darling of the international community – considered one of the up and coming new leaders in Africa. Alas, this mythology was destroyed in 2006 when he changed the constitution to allow himself an unlimited number of terms and his regime, like with most dictators, has become more corrupt and vicious. With this belligerent response his star is rising again, particularly with the American government which strongly supports Museveni's call for retaliation. In the quid pro quo of international politics this means that the US will give more funds to the Uganda military to carry out the Ugandan/American objectives in Somalia.

The United States military headquarters for Africa, Africom, is in Europe and they have been looking for a base in Africa, but no appropriate location has been found since most African countries believe that they will become a target if the Americans are based in their country. The only country that volunteered to become the Africom base was Liberia, but the US military did not think this was an appropriate place for their base. This incident has loosened up the possibilities in eastern Africa and the horn of Africa as a potential site. Stay tuned to the fine print on the back pages of the paper to learn if a site will be found.

Then there is Kenya. Kenya, along with Ethiopia, has a large section of territory that is part of what is called larger Somalia since it is inhabited mostly by Somali. Shortly after independence in 1963 Kenya fought a war against the Somali in northeastern Kenya who wished to combine with Somalia instead of stay with Kenya. This means that there are a large number of Somali in Kenya with Kenyan nationality. There, of course, are also a large number of Somali refugees in Kenya with many more coming across each day as Somalia continues chaotic fighting. You have heard about those Somali pirates who get million dollar ransoms. They do not invest their money in Somalia, but in Kenya. They are reported to be buying up houses, estates, and property in Nairobi and Kenya, paying inflated prices as they pay in cash. The result has been a large increase in the price of luxury homes in Kenya.

In the past Kenya has tried to stay as neutral as it could vis-à-vis the situation in Somalia so that Kenya does not become a target as happened in the bombings in Uganda. There already has been some border fighting along the Kenya-Somalia border but, unlike Uganda, the Kenyan Government has not been threatening retaliation. With these bombings, Uganda, the United States, and Ethiopia have been pressuring Kenya to become more actively involved in the problems of Somalia. So as far as we know on the surface the Kenyan Government has not changed its stance, but who knows what is going on behind the scenes. We do know that in the past the American and British military have done "trainings" in northeastern Kenya – they said that they were drilling wells, but no Kenyan believes that. The US has also launched a number of guided missile attacks on suspected Al Qaida/al-Shabab camps – in 2007 one of these attacks killed the then leader of al-Shabab. The Americans have not yet learned that killing the leader of a rebel group is really of little significance since a new leader immediately arises and the new leader may be even more militant than the one killed.

At best I predict a significant increase in the fighting in Somalia leading to more deaths of civilians and soldiers, a greater number of refugees in Kenya and elsewhere, and the continuation of the status quo of Somalia as a failed state. At worse, we are looking at the build up to the next big war in Africa. If so, it will be similar to the Taliban fight against the US and others in Afghanistan.

Ironically al-Shabab is a very fundamentalist group even, for instance, banning the watching of the World Cup games. It does not seem to be particularly popular with the average Somali who is still living in Somalia and even less popular with those who have fled the country. An increased war will only make al-Shabab more militant and further entrenched. Can't the international community work out other methods of dealing with a country such as Somalia?

Peace,
Dave

 

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